This post was originally published on April 13, 2011. It is a summary of findings after one year of stat-tracking basketball games in attempt to extend the box score. SportsVU now captures similar data.
If one spends enough time watching NBA games with a DVR, trends start to jump out. Unfortunately, there’s no way the human brain can accurately catalog all that information. Perhaps Data from Star Trek should be assigned to finding trends in basketball games. In the meantime, here are some statistical observations from roughly 23,000 possessions of stat-tracking in 2011:
- 16% of all field goals came off of an Opportunity Created (OC).
- 46% of 3-pointers came off of an OC.
- The average player shot 40% on 3-point shots off of an OC.
- The Spurs led the league in OC’s (23.5 per 100 possessions), with the Hawks second at 23.4.
- The Jazz needed the most help on defense — which means their opponents create the most opportunities (23.7 OC per 100).
- The Jazz had the lowest Defensive Rating in the sample by far (118.7).
- The Lakers committed the fewest shooting fouls in the league (16.5 free throws/100).
- On a related note, LA is allowing the 5th-fewest free throws per game since 1980.
- Someone takes an offensive foul every 88 possessions…or a little more than once per game.
- Phoenix takes more offensive fouls than any other team – 2.2 per 100 possessions.
- In guarded situations, the most successful teams are the best defensive teams: The four leaders in guarded field goal percentage are in the top-5 in defensive rating (and Milwaukee’s sample was too small):
- Miami (36.6%)
- Chicago (36.6%)
- Boston (36.9%)
- LA Lakers (37.7%)
- The Lakers make the most defensive errors…but give up the fewest points per error (1.50 points/error), a credit to Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol protecting the paint.
- Every 172 possessions there is a forced turnover not counted as a steal (eg slapped off a leg out of bounds. That means the NBA doesn’t track about 1700 “steals” during the season.
- Teams shoot the worst in unguarded situations against the Lakers (56.6% eFG%), which suggests that LA does well closing out shots and fighting through screens…or they’re just lucky.