I knew it was coming, but still…
Heretofore, LeBron James didn’t have It. But once he wins a title, he’ll be more Michael Jordan and less Karl Malone. Wait and see.
You’re familiar with It, that intangible quality that our most lionized athletes possess. They always make the “right” play, always have a stronger “will” than other players, and most certainly always come through in the clutch.
But, as we’ve discussed before, people’s minds are tricking them. Such ethereal reverence is often simply a function of a winning team; We rarely discuss or even remember spectacular performances in defeat. We endlessly celebrate the achievements of the victors and overlook their follies. Here was Ian Tomsen’s lead today at SI.com:
Memories of LeBron James‘ previous postseasons come to mind as you watch Derrick Rose. Someday Rose will make the big jump shots down the stretch, as James has learned to do.
Say what?
Apparently, we’ve all forgotten that in LeBron James‘ third playoff game, he capped a 41 point , 64% True Shooting night with a score to take the lead with 30 seconds left, then the game winning drive in the final seconds. Two games later, he scored 45 points (73% TS), including the game-winner at the buzzer.
In the next round against Detroit, LeBron broke a 68-68 tie late in the 4th quarter of game 3 by scoring 7 points without a miss, and capping the run with a key assist. Of course, that was just a warmup for the following spring, when James scored 25 consecutive points in a row to eviscerate Detroit.
The video quality is about as fuzzy as my memory, but on the It checklist, I see
- taking over a critical game
- making impossible jumpers
- repeatedly scoring clutch hoops
ESPN’s Skip Bayless keeps proclaiming that LeBron is surprised that he’s making big shots and plays for the first time in his life. Maybe it’s that Skip, and others, tend to forget events when they don’t support a story and cling to the ones that do.
Because James’ playoff successes didn’t stop there. In 2008, he scored 45 points in game 7 against the historic Boston Celtics defense. James made eight jumpers in that game. Derrick Rose has made eight jumpers in the last three games (per NBA.com play-by-play scoring).
In 2009, James went 4-6 with 10 4th quarter points in game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals against Orlando. In game 2, he hit one of the more memorable shots in NBA playoff history. Well…it would be memorable, if the Cavs hadn’t lost the series. James — the man without It, the man only starting to make big shots now — set the postseason record for Win Shares per 48 in 2009.
James has already authored eight of the top-75 playoff games by Game Score (since 1991). That’s as many as Michael Jordan, only LeBron has done it in fewer games. He’s been absolutely dominant in late-game situations in both the regular season and in the playoffs over the last few years.
Yet people seem to overlook all of this, and it’s because he hasn’t won it all yet. It’s the same cognitive process that leads people to believe Kobe Bryant was significantly better than Karl Malone when facing elimination, only he wasn’t.
One simple change that is quite real in LeBron is that he’s improved his outside shooting. He’s increase his field goal percentage on long 2-point shots for the last five years. That doesn’t make him a generational athlete, but rather like hundreds of other NBA veterans.
The other, slightly more important change driving the LeBron narrative shift is his supporting cast. In Cleveland, as examined last week, his team was absolutely helpless when James was off. In five years, they were 1-14 in his bad playoff games. Kobe’s Lakers won 40% of the time in his down games.
In other words, when James did this stuff in Cleveland, it didn’t result in a victory as often. Now, it leads the highlights in an apparent championship march. Of course, if Miami wins a title in two weeks, the Jordan comparisons will suddenly begin. If they lose again, expect all this talk of change to quickly be reneged.
Regardless of how many greats shots or games LeBron has.
Look at you beating me to the punch again. This time you cheated though, seeing into the future and such.
Anywho, if LeBron leads the Heat to the title this year with his current level of play he will indeed look more like Jordan than Malone, however let’s note that there are multiple overtones of narrative for a player like LeBron that go along with the fundamental narrative, and they carry truth along with misconception.
I’d encourage everyone to go re-watch the old “Book of Dimes” advertising campaign and meditate on how that shaped perception over time.
ElGee,
Good stuff! It amazes me how easily people forget the past. Bron pretty much pulled the 07 Cavs to the finals. An interesting comparison I’ve made before is Jordan’s “God Game” against Larry Bird ended in a loss and Jordan’s “The Shot” against Cleveland did not end in a title for the Bulls. Clutch with greats seems to be retroactive (if they won titles then these games were clutch, otherwise they weren’t)
Wonder if people will be able to remember Dirk and Jason Kidd have played really well in the playoffs before too! (Kidd averaged a triple double in 12 games the same year Bron made the finals)
Thanks Dre – I was thinking the exact same thing about retroactive clutchness. There’s a body of work — and it’s on youtube — that might be viewed entirely differently after a title for some of the current stars (Dirk included).
And Kidd nearly averaged a triple double in 02 and I believe he did in the ECF series.
Terrific stuff. Terrific.
Thanks Tybalt and welcome.
What’s interesting is that as great as Michael and LeBron are in the playoffs, they’re pretty much doing what they do in the regular season (although you can argue against better competition). MJ’s career playoff WS48 is 0.255 and his career regular season average is 0.250, a difference of 2.1%. LeBrons’ playoff WS48 is 0.232, a difference of only 2.2% from his regular season average of 0.227. In fact, it’s remarkable how consistently “the same” many of the great players are in the playoffs during their careers compared to the regular season. Dirk’s playoff WS48 is 0.210. His regular season average is 0.214. A difference of -1.7%. If it “seems” like Dirk has disappointed in the playoffs up until this season (with the exception of the other time he didn’t back in ’06), that perception is not based on actual data (unfortunately). But as ElGee says, it’s all about the narrative.
Having said all that, I should also add that there are, indeed, players who are substantially better or worse in their playoff careers. Of the top 100 players according to career playoff WS48, Karl Malone has the biggest deviation from the regular season. His regular season average was 0.205, while his playoff average was a much more pedestrian 0.140. A difference of 32%. In fact, I found that Malone had the worst differential of those 100 players. John Stockton had the fourth worst differential (-23.3%).
For completeness, here are the 10 worst differentials among the top 100 all-time:
All-Time Name DIFF
68 Karl Malone -31.9%
93 Clyde Lovellette -26.9%
41 Bob Pettit -25.4%
40 John Stockton -23.3%
88 Clyde Drexler -22.8%
52 Kevin Garnett -20.9%
89 Chet Walker -20.5%
8 David Robinson -20.3%
84 Steve Nash -19.9%
63 Dan Issel -19.7%
Here are the 10 best (“overperformers”):
All-Time Name DIFF
18 Baron Davis 74.6%
80 Tim Thomas 71.3%
61 Isiah Thomas* 31.1%
71 James Posey 29.4%
94 Ron Harper 29.0%
49 John Salley 26.1%
15 Frank Ramsey* 23.5%
53 Gus Williams 18.3%
86 Antonio Daniels 16.7%
81 Elvin Hayes* 16.6%
Here are the 14 (so I could get LeBron on the list) with the least change between playoffs and regular season (%’s are absolute values here):
All-Time Name ABS
21 Paul Arizin 0.2%
50 Dikembe Mutombo 0.3%
27 Bob Lanier 0.3%
45 Brad Daugherty 0.6%
82 John Havlicek 0.8%
16 Dolph Schayes* 1.0%
98 Alex English 1.5%
4 Dirk Nowitzki 1.7%
26 Pau Gasol 1.9%
36 Don Nelson 2.0%
2 George Mikan 2.0%
1 Michael Jordan 2.1%
23 Reggie Miller 2.2%
3 LeBron James 2.2%
The differential table is a bit flawed though in that players do not play in the post-season every year. Thus, a player on the downside of their career who starts making the playoffs would see a big drop in production, just like one whose team only started making the playoffs in their peak years would have an increase.
Perhaps it would be better to do that comparison with the regular season numbers for the years that there was post-season play by the particular player.
Excellent work, ElGee! A pretty airtight argument against the conventional narrative.
Yeah, the older I get the more I see human beings willing to ignore reality to believe whatever they are going to believe.
I was listening to the radio and heard Lebron James former coach Paul Silas say he didn’t think Bron had that killer instinct and that he would never get it, but now he does. Talk about illogical and circular thinking.
Agreed. There’s definitely a tendency for people to hold strongly to their beliefs in the face of all contradictory evidence.
ElGee – I read this and went back and read your Bryant v. Malone clutch article. I must say I am incredibly impressed! Putting aside for a moment the fact that this is a sports article, it is very rare that I read anything as cogent and well thought out as these two pieces and I’m a lawyer. I read and write for a living. Well done sir, you have gained a new follower.
Thanks Ryan — appreciate the kind words. Always happy to have a new follower.
Agree, but the bias goes both ways. The post-chatter after the Cavs/Spurs series was indicative of this (“Lebron can’t do it on his own”). It’s especially problematic that analysis largely focuses on the second half/4th quarter, as though the points scored in half 1 are somehow less valuable.
Game 1 Cavs/Spurs James has 6 turnovers and scores 14 yet the Cavs are in the game at halftime, down only 5.
Game 3 Cavs/Spurs the Cavs are only down by 2 at halftime (they’d lose by 5), at one point in first half building an eight point lead with James on the bench; in fact that’s where he was the entire first half when he wasn’t missing shots. He ends with 24, including a great run in the 4th but he still was 0-5 from 3. Yet, you read coverage of that game and it was all about how his team didn’t assist him in the rally to win in the 4th. How about the alternate: With Lebron cold Cavs bench keeps them close until the half?
Ayway, my point is: point is a point is a point, I don’t care if it is one second into the game or with one second left in the game.
Never hurts to say that too much Eric. A point in the first half is the same as a point in the second half. Boy, that 2007 series feels like a lifetime ago…James certainly wasn’t subject to the same scrutiny then.
Like everything else-yes and no. In that order.
Excellent post!
At the end of the day, though, the difference in supporting cast cuts both ways? As big an advantage as MJ had when Lebron was on the Cavs, that’s how big an advantage Lebron seems to have now. Parenthetically, if this is not the case, I’d like to see the numbers (now THAT would be pretty interesting!).
To me, this is why, somehow, I can’t seem to muster up that same sense of awe at watching MJ dominate when I watch Lebron trying to decide whether D-Wade cutting to the lane or Chris Bosh in the paint is a better option. Sorry.